From Businessweek:
Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, as well as the Boeing (BA)
strike, will conspire with an already-deteriorating labor market to
depress U.S. payrolls in the September employment report, scheduled for
release on Oct. 3, raising the risk of an outsize drop in jobs for the
month.
We also expect a further rise in the unemployment rate to 6.2%
from 6.1%, given expected payroll weakness, a deteriorating trend in
weekly initial jobless claims, and a falling labor market reading in
the last consumer confidence report.
We expect payrolls to fall by 100,000 in September, with a drop that
may exceed the 101,000 June decline to mark the biggest pullback in
payrolls since March 2003, when hiring paused with the uncertainty at
the onset of the War in Iraq.
since June 2003. The average workweek should hold at 33.7 hours, and
average hourly earnings should rise 0.3%, to leave year-over-year
hourly earnings growth a tick below the 3.6% rate posted in August.
